Build a gas budget without pretending to predict prices in California

California: Budget the exposed components rather than one future rate

Start with EIA: supply, demand, weather and storage price drivers. The table below links this decision to the represented gas companies in California. It does not establish service or supplier availability for every account.

Create a scenario register

Keep monthly usage, index assumptions, location differential, fixed charges and exposed adjustments in separate columns. Name the source and observation date for market data. A supplier’s written formula determines how an observation reaches the bill.

Use a revision trigger

Set an internal review date and identify operational changes that justify a new budget: closure, added shifts, equipment replacement or a corrected baseline. Keep a downside scenario visible without presenting it as a prediction or creating unsupported urgency.

California utility application

SoCalGas: the program detail behind this decision

SoCalGas separates an aggregator’s commodity service from utility transportation. Its CAT guidance expressly says that switching does not assure savings. Establish core or noncore status before using an aggregator proposal as the benchmark. Socal Cat.

Apply the evidence to an account file

Give Aggregator commodity and customer fees versus utility procurement, with delivery retained its own documented model assumptions. Validate Core or noncore classification; CAT participation and the accepted agent before using a utility comparison component; a forecast for a different class is not this meter’s available alternative.

An assumption register that can be updated without rewriting history

Record each month’s therms, price mechanism, assumed benchmark, location/service adders, recurring fees and retained utility charges. Keep the original budget alongside revisions and actuals. Change one driver at a time to identify sensitivity, then test a combined adverse scenario. For a fixed commodity offer, leave that defined component fixed over its contractual months while varying usage and genuinely exposed items. Do not apply a current spot observation to every future month or label an invented scenario as the forecast available to the customer.

Turn the review into a calculation

Build a monthly weighted budget. Enter documented assumptions in matching energy units. Keep any charge outside both supply offers separate; the result does not establish eligibility or an available quote.

Read the California utility guide for the wider service-company distinctions. Convert billed gas units using the bill’s heat-content factor when moving from volume to energy.